A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
