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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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